The NBA’s new 2027-28 salary-cap projection bodes well for the Sixers

This offseason, new Sixers president of basketball operations Mike Gansey turned lemons into fresh-squeezed lemonade. Not only did the Sixers flip Paul George for Jaylen Brown and sign LeBron James to a minimum contract, but they also rounded out their depth by splitting the non-taxpayer mid-level exception between Anfernee Simons and Dean Wade and spending part of their bi-annual exception on Ariel Hukporti.

As long as they have all three of Brown, Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid on max contracts, the Sixers can’t be big offseason spenders. But the NBA’s latest salary-cap projection for the 2027-28 season could give them some unexpected financial wiggle room.

On Saturday, Fred Katz and John Hollinger of The Athletic reported that the latest cap projection jumped from the initial $174 million up to $176 million. The luxury-tax line is now projected to be $213 million instead of $211 million, and both the first and second aprons would increase by roughly $2 million as well.

That comes out to a roughly 6.7 percent increase, which still doesn’t fully cover the 8 percent annual raises in Embiid, Brown and Maxey contracts. But it’s better than the previous projection (5.5 percent), which could have put the Sixers into a tight financial bind next offseason.

If the $176 million projection holds—or even goes up further—the Sixers could start dreaming bigger about their free-agent plans in 2027.

Which MLE will the Sixers have?

Between Embiid, Brown, Maxey and VJ Edgecombe alone, the Sixers already have $180.1 million tied up in 2027-28. Add in Wade ($9.45 million) and Labaron Philon Jr. ($3.8 million), and they’re at roughly $193.3 million in guaranteed salary.

Simons has a $6.3 million player option for the 2027-28 season and LeBron has a $4.1 million player option. Both figure to decline those options, barring something catastrophic.

The Sixers also have relatively inexpensive team options on Justin Edwards ($2.6 million) and Adem Bona ($2.5 million). Edwards’ salary is almost identical to the projected minimum salary for 2027-28, while Bona’s is more than $100,000 below that. The Sixers therefore figure to pick up their team option on Bona, while Edwards’ roster spot may come down to how he performs this year and what other options they have next summer.

In the incredibly unlikely event that Simons and James both opt in and the Sixers pick up their options on both Edwards and Bona, they’d be at $208.8 million in total salary. That would leave them roughly $13.2 million below the projected $222.0 million first apron and $27.2 million below the $236 million second apron.

Every salary-cap exception increases by the same percentage as the salary cap itself. So, if the cap rises by roughly 6.7 percent in 2027-28, the non-taxpayer MLE will jump to around $16.05 million, while the taxpayer MLE will be about $6.5 million.

As the Sixers learned the hard way this past offseason, teams that spend the non-taxpayer MLE get hard-capped at the first apron. If Simons and LeBron both opt out, the Sixers would have enough room under the first apron to spend the full non-taxpayer MLE, but they’d have to remain mindful of leaving themselves enough spending power to fill out the rest of their roster with minimum deals.

The Sixers could spend some or all of their MLE to re-sign LeBron to repay him for the massive pay cut he took this season, provided he wants to keep playing in 2027-28. But if LeBron wants to maximize his chances of winning a fifth championship—or hopefully a sixth by that point—he’d re-sign on another minimum deal and allow the Sixers to spend their MLE elsewhere. It’d be even better if he took a one-year deal instead of a one-plus-one, so his cap hit would be around $2.6 million instead of above $4 million.

If LeBron is willing to take another minimum contract—or a 5 percent raise via his non-Bird rights—the Sixers could instead save their MLE for Simons if so desired. Otherwise, they could peruse the free-agent market and see whether anyone merited that type of payday. However, the first-apron hard cap could wind up costing them Hukporti and/or Dominick Barlow if they go that route.

The Sixers need to get through this season before they fully turn their attention free agency next year. We still have no idea what this team will look like, what it’s biggest needs are, if all of the main pieces will mesh, etc. It’s admittedly premature to look this far ahead at this juncture.

However, front offices don’t only get to operate on a one-year timeline. The Sixers have undoubtedly begun planning ahead not only for next offseason, but for the next few years. In particular, circle your calendars for the summer of 2029, as the contracts for all four of Embiid, Maxey, Brown and Edgecombe are currently set to expire simultaneously then.

In the meantime, keep your fingers crossed that NBA business keeps booming and sends the cap even higher. Having three max players with 8 percent annual raises puts the Sixers in a tricky financial spot, so the more that the salary cap rises year-over-year, the better.